Valery Gerasimov
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Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces; First Deputy Defence Minister (Russia), ranks #316/500 on the Power & Influence Index (48.1). Greatest lever: Political power (70.0, Strong). Entrenchment 66/100.
Dimension read
| Dimension | Value | Standing | What a high vs low value means, and where Valery Gerasimov sits |
|---|---|---|---|
| PII Power & Influence (PII) | 48.1 | Moderate · #315/635 | Mid-pack. High would mean near the apex of civilizational influence; low would mean lower relative influence within this elite set. ▲ high: near the apex of civilizational influence · ▼ low: lower relative influence within this elite set |
| Economic power Economic power | 35.0 | Lagging · #571/635 | Low here, limited economic control. ▲ high: controls vast wealth and companies · ▼ low: limited economic control |
| Political power Political power | 70.0 | Strong · #67/635 | High here, commands states, law or policy. ▲ high: commands states, law or policy · ▼ low: little formal political power |
| AI power AI power | 30.0 | Moderate · #397/635 | Mid-pack. High would mean shapes or controls the trajectory of AI; low would mean limited sway over AI's direction. ▲ high: shapes or controls the trajectory of AI · ▼ low: limited sway over AI's direction |
| Platform reach Platform reach | 48.0 | Moderate · #367/635 | Mid-pack. High would mean commands a vast audience or network; low would mean limited direct reach. ▲ high: commands a vast audience or network · ▼ low: limited direct reach |
| Institutional control Institutional control | 82.0 | Strong · #92/635 | High here, controls pivotal institutions and capital. ▲ high: controls pivotal institutions and capital · ▼ low: limited institutional control |
| Entrenchment / tenure Entrenchment / tenure | 66.0 | Moderate · #257/635 | Mid-pack. High would mean power is locked in (indefinite or controlling stake); low would mean power is contingent, term-limited or contestable. ▲ high: power is locked in (indefinite or controlling stake) · ▼ low: power is contingent, term-limited or contestable |
Strengths
- Political power (70.0, Strong), commands states, law or policy.
- Institutional control (82.0, Strong), controls pivotal institutions and capital.
Risk factors
- Significant but balanced influence with no single dominant lever.
AI worldview
Ideas & positions
Valery Gerasimov has not made extensive public statements specifically about AI, but his remarks suggest a focus on integrating AI into military operations to enhance strategic and tactical capabilities. He has emphasized the importance of AI in modern warfare, particularly in areas such as autonomous systems, data analysis, and decision-making processes. Gerasimov has also highlighted the need for international cooperation to manage the risks associated with AI in military contexts, though he has not explicitly addressed existential risks, open vs closed models, or detailed regulatory frameworks.
What shapes the view
Gerasimov's views on AI are shaped by his role in the Russian military command and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. His emphasis on technological advancement and strategic superiority reflects the broader Russian military doctrine, which prioritizes innovation in defense and security. The practical challenges of modern warfare, including the need for rapid decision-making and the integration of advanced technologies, likely influence his support for AI development.
The AI-powered future they see
Gerasimov predicts that AI will play a crucial role in future conflicts, enabling more precise and efficient military operations. He promotes the idea that AI can enhance Russia's military capabilities and maintain its strategic position on the global stage. However, he also warns about the potential for AI to create new vulnerabilities and the importance of international norms to prevent arms races and ensure stability.